Suicide watch is on for Democratic Party

Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics and a highly respected independent political analyst, has been looking into his crystal ball ... and it's not good news for Democrats.

Writing at his political blog, Sabato's Crystal Ball, he predicts that Republicans will pick up at least 49 House seats (they need 39 for a majority) in the midterm elections. Sabato also predicts Republicans will pick up 8-9 Senate seats (They need 10 for the majority but most pundits have been predicting a pick up of 5-6 seats, so Sabato's analysis leads one to conclude that control of the Senate is in play.)

Sabato also predicts that Republicans will pick up at least 8 governor seats and between 300-500 seats in state legislatures across the country. That's significant because the party that controls state legislatures will have the biggest say in redrawing Congressional and legislative boundaries in 2011. That could help Republican candidates for the next decade.

Here's what Sabato has to say about the House of Representatives:

2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a question of degree. Several scenarios were possible, depending in large measure on whether, or how quickly, the deeply troubled American economy recovered from the Great Recession. Had Democratic hopes on economic revitalization materialized, it is easy to see how the party could have used its superior financial resources, combined with the tendency of Republicans in some districts and states to nominate ideological fringe candidates, to keep losses to the low 30s in the House and a handful in the Senate.

But conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd. Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish, and public confidence quite low. The Democrats’ self-proclaimed “Recovery Summer” has become a term of derision, and to most voters—fair or not—it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered.

Obama’s job approval ratings have drifted down well below 50% in most surveys. The generic ballot that asks likely voters whether they will cast ballots for Democrats or Republicans this year has moved increasingly in the GOP direction. While far less important, other controversies such as the mosque debate and immigration policy have made the climate worse for Democrats. Republican voters are raring to vote, their energy fueled by anti-Obama passion and concern over debt, spending, taxes, health care, and the size of government. Democrats are much less enthusiastic by almost every measure, and the Democratic base’s turnout will lag. Plus, Democrats have won over 50 House seats in 2006 and 2008, many of them in Republican territory, so their exposure to any sort of GOP wave is high.

Here is what Sabato has to say about the Senate:

In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency.

Read the full analysis at Sabato's Crystal Ball.