Poll: Rendell-fatigue is killing Onorato

After eight years of broken promises under Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell, Pennsylvania voters are looking for a change. That does not bode well for Dan Onorato, the Democratic nominee for governor who is campaigning on a platform to continue the failed Rendell policies.

This could explain why Onorato continues to trail Republican Tom Corbett despite a lackluster campaign by the Republican attorney general.

From Susquehanna Polling & Research:

Our latest poll in the governor’s race earlier this summer shows Attorney General Tom Corbett with a 10-point, 43% to 33% lead over Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato; 24% of voters were undecided at the time the survey was taken (June 3-7). For all intents and purposes, Corbett’s lead is wide and deep and he leads in nearly all regions of the state.

For instance, Corbett leads Onorato by a 51/25 margin in the Northwest/Erie region, a 53/21 margin in the conservative or rural “T” region which includes most of Central PA, a 51/27 margin in the South Central or Harrisburg area, and leads by a 50/34 margin in the Southwest/Pittsburgh media market surrounding Allegheny County. Corbett even holds a narrow 43/41 lead in Allegheny County where Onorato serves as the county’s top elected official, and even leads Onorato 33/31 in the Democratic-leaning, vote-rich suburbs of Philadelphia, and the Northeast/Wilkes-Barre/Scranton market by a 50/33 margin. Onorato leads only in Philadelphia, a city that has become so Democrat that there are only three remaining Republican Members of the state legislature representing parts of the city, now a 27-member delegation.

So the question is: Why is Corbett up by so much, so early in the race? The truth is that Corbett has three things going for him this year that all make him the odds-on favorite. Number one is the fact that the political environment has shifted in his favor. Truth be told, Republican voters have the enthusiasm this year, their base is more energized, and polls show that Republican candidates will benefit from the top of the ticket down to the bottom because they happen to be the political party out of power at a time when the economy is still wallowing in recession, one that national polls show most voters still believe we have not yet hit rock bottom on. These political winds now blowing Republican are a huge headwind in Onorato’s face.

The number two reason Corbett leads is that Pennsylvania has a history since the 1950’s of alternating between 8 years of Republican governors and 8 years of Democratic governors. From eight years of Democrat Milton Shapp, to 8 years of Republican Dick Thornburgh, to 8 years of Democrat Robert Casey, to 8 years of Republican Tom Ridge, and back to 8 years of Ed Rendell. It’s now the Republican’s turn, and Tom Corbett’s simply at the right place in history.

The third and most important reason Corbett leads is not because voters are necessarily rejecting Dan Onorato’s brand of politics. In fact, Dan Onorato proved with his convincing primary win in May that he is articulate, well-versed on the issues, and has a vision for the state with the CEO-type credentials most voters would probably find attractive, all things being equal. But all things are not equal when it comes to politics and campaigns. And the polling is showing more and more lately that to most voters, a vote for Onorato is a vote for a continuation of the Ed Rendell agenda, something most voters are dead set against.

More specifically, Rendell’s average job approval score is a staggering low of 24% in 62 of the state’s 67 counties, while an average of 66% disapprove of his job performance. Only in the remaining counties of Philadelphia and its four suburban extensions (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery) do voters still give the former Philadelphia mayor and current governor a positive rating. Moreover, the intensity of voters’ feelings against Rendell is quite sobering. When asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the governor, by a near 3:1 margin voters say their opinion is largely unfavorable, and by a 2:1 margin the percent who say “very” unfavorable is usually twice as high as those with a “very” favorable opinion. In some cases, the percent who have very unfavorable opinions of Rendell reaches forty percent or higher, even in districts in the west that register two-to-one Democrat or more in voter registration.

Read the full post, PA Gov Race: Onorato is Losing, but Mainly Because of Rendell, here.