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Monday, October 14, 2024

Past Presidential Polls Provide a Big Clue About November 5

Past Presidential Polls Provide a Big Clue About November 5: What do the polls of elections past tell us about the current presidential race?

Borrowing from Charles Dickens’s classic “A Christmas Carol,” miserly Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by ghosts from Christmas past, present, and future, converting him into a kinder and gentler soul.

Political polling also creates scrooges, especially when we see our preferred candidate losing in the polls, or our disliked candidate given a false boost due to the polling sample composition and spin.

The ghost of election present is today, the first week or two of October, less than a month until election day. The Real Clear Politics average shows Harris up 1.8 points over Trump, with only Rasmussen Reports giving Trump a 2-point lead.

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