The Top 50 Most Competitive U.S. House Districts in the Nation

From a recent study by the University of Minnesota:

Jim Gerlach's PA-06 seat is the only U.S. House district in the nation decided by less than 10 points in each of the last four election cycles; Democrats currently hold 35 of the Top 50 most competitive seats.

Out of the 435 U.S. House elections held every other November across the United States, only one congressional district has provided a nail-biting finish without fail since new district lines went into effect in 2002.

A new Smart Politics analysis of 1,740 general election U.S. House contests since 2002 finds that the 6th Congressional District of Pennsylvania is the only district to have been decided by less than 10 points in each election cycle.

In fact, PA-06 has been decided by less than five points in each of these elections - and Republican Jim Gerlach, who has represented the district since 2003, is still standing.

Gerlach, a former Pennsylvania State Senator, first won the 6th CD in 2002, when a newly drawn Congressional map forced then 5-term Democrat Tim Holden to run in the 17th CD instead of the 6th. Gerlach won his 2002 contest by 2.8 points over Democrat Dan Wofford.

Gerlach subsequently won his 2004 race against Lois Murphy by 2.0 points, his 2006 rematch against Murphy by 1.4 points, and his 2008 race against Bob Roggio by 4.2 points - while many of Gerlach's Northeastern GOP colleagues fell to defeat during the last two election cycles.

With an average victory margin of a scant 2.6 points across four elections, no other congressional district, let alone no other member of Congress, has endured four highly competitive elections in a row since 2002 as has Representative Gerlach.

In fact, only eight other congressional districts have been decided by less than 10 points in three of the last four election cycles: CT-02, CT-04, IN-02, IN-09, MN-06, TX-17, WA-08, and the now vacant 29th District of New York, formerly held by Eric Massa.

Read the full study, The Top 50 Most Competitive U.S. House Districts in the Nation (2002-2008)," at the University of Minnesota's Smart Politics Web site.