Gerlach: Time for Welch to drop out

With a new poll in hand showing incumbent Congressman Jim Gerlach holding a commanding lead over GOP primary challenger Steve Welch, the Gerlach campaign is urging Welch to drop out of the race.

A poll released by the Gerlach for Congress campaign shows a 61-point lead over Welch, with the four-term Republican Congressman leading in a head-to-head match up by a 71% to 6% margin.

With Gerlach securing party support and holding a monetary advantage, the only purpose Welch can serve by staying in the race is to help a potential Democratic opponent in the fall, the Gerlach camp argues.

From the Gerlach for Congress campaign:

"Republican voters in southeast Pennsylvania know Jim very well and they have already reached the conclusion that he is doing a good job in Congress and should be returned to Washington for another term," said Chris Wilson, the campaign's pollster. "With solid numbers like these, Jim is a virtual lock to win the Republican primary. Any primary challenge to Jim Gerlach at this point would only serve Nancy Pelosi and Democrats in Washington."

Among the data, Wilson Research Strategies found that Gerlach's Republican support is strongest among the most conservative voters, making it nearly impossible to challenge him "from the right." Additionally, Republican primary voters who disapprove of Congress (87%) do not blame Jim Gerlach for the problems in Washington, since 86% of those voters approve of Gerlach's job performance in Congress. Therefore, this is not an anti-incumbent electorate.

"Even among those voters who have heard of Steve Welch, Gerlach is leading 67-15%," added Wilson.

Since Jim Gerlach's decision to seek re-election January 8th, a number of national publications have written that Pennsylvania's 6th District seat is now more likely to stay in Republican hands, with one commentator stating that Gerlach "saved that seat for Republicans ... I think they would have lost it otherwise." Still, Democrats are ecstatic after learning of Welch's decision to challenge Gerlach in the primary. The National Journal said it forces Republicans into a "potentially costly, and damaging, primary" that could be "damaging to the GOP hopes of holding the seat." Pa2010.com wrote the news of his primary challenge was "a lift for Democrats."

Despite having to start virtually from scratch after winding down his federal campaign account last year in anticipation of a campaign for Governor, Gerlach announced at the end of January that he had secured more than half a million dollars in financial commitments in just three weeks for his primary election campaign, a number that has grown each day.

For more on the poll, click here.

For more on Gerlach, visit his campaign Web site.