24th Senate contest will test GOP unity

Robert Kerns is chairman of the Montgomery County Republican Committee. He is widely credited with bringing harmony and stability to the county organization, two things lacking under previous leadership.

Kerns is about to face his biggest challenge since assuming the leadership of the county party in May 2008. He will have to back a candidate for the soon-to-be-vacated state Senate seat in the 24th District, which covers portions of Montgomery, Bucks, Lehigh and Northampton counties.

The Senate seat will become available after Aug. 1 when Sen. Rob Wonderling is planning to step down to take over as president and CEO of the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce.

Wonderling, serving his second term in the state Senate, is seen as a rising star in the Republican party with ambition that could take him to the governor's mansion one day.

A special election will be held later this year to fill Wonderling's seat until next year's regularly scheduled legislative elections. The winner of the special election will have the advantage of being the incumbent in 2010 and should win a full four-year term in the state Senate.

The GOP needs to hold on to Wonderling's seat, but it appears too many well-known Republicans are interested in the job. That's where the dilemma comes in for Kerns, who will have to rally the party around a single candidate.

Within 24 hours of Wonderling's announcement that he is leaving the Senate, two potential candidates emerged. State Rep. Bob Mensch, R-147, and Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce L. Castor Jr. each stated publicly they would like to replace Wonderling.

Both already have high-profile elected positions, but the opportunity to serve in the state Senate is too good for either official to pass up.

Later in the week, another potential GOP candidate's name surfaced, but former state Rep. Jay Moyer is unlikely to attract much support from voters or party officials. Moyer barely won a seat in the state House in 2006 but lost his re-election bid in 2008. Not exactly the strongest candidate for a state Senate run.

On the other hand, either Mensch or Castor would have the edge in keeping Wonderling's seat in Republican hands.

There's no downside for either man making a run for the Senate because both have jobs to fall back on. Castor still has two years left in his four-year term as one of three elected commissioners running one of the largest county governments in the state. Mensch won reelection last November to a second two-year term in the state House.

Neither has to quit their day job to make a run for Wonderling's seat. The loser simply returns to his current position. The winner gets to move to a higher-profile office.

Castor could gain the most because he is currently in political purgatory as the odd man out in a power-sharing agreement between renegade Republican Commissioner Jim Matthews and Democratic Commissioner Joe Hoeffel. Although Castor was the top vote-getter in the 2007 election (and basically got Matthews reelected on his coattails), Matthews surrendered control of county government to Hoeffel rather than allow Castor to take the lead.

Although Wonderling's successor would have the least seniority in the 50-member Senate, the Republicans have a solid 30-20 majority and can push their agenda, especially with a lame duck governor in Ed Rendell counting down the days to the end of his second term.

Mensch would rather run every four years for the Legislature as a member of the Senate rather than every two years in the House. He would also like to be in the majority instead of suffering another two years in the Democratic controlled House.

A potential Castor-Mensch showdown for the 24th Senate District would create some friction within the Montgomery County GOP. That's why Kerns is facing some sleepless nights. He has to back the strongest candidate without alienating the other candidate's supporters.

Mensch represents many of the same communities in the state House that Wonderling has in his Senate district, but there's no question Castor has the bigger name recognition in Montgomery County and beyond.

Castor has a following as the flamboyant, two-term Montgomery County District Attorney who prosecuted some of the biggest criminal cases in Southeastern Pennsylvania. Castor also has more access to cash and has run bigger campaigns for Montgomery County D.A., county commissioner and Pennsylvania Attorney General.

Maybe Castor and Mensch can settle this with a coin flip. Otherwise, it's mostly up to Kerns.

Here's one scenario that could make everyone happy. Castor could win the state Senate seat in a special election this year, but make a run for higher office in 2010, say lieutenant governor, giving Mensch another shot at the 24th District Senate seat next year. Stranger things have happened.