Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Magazine predicts Democrats will hold their slim lead in Congress after 2008

Congressional Quarterly, a publication that has covered Congress since 1945, is predicting that Democrats will continue to hold their slim lead in the House after the 2008 elections.

That's interesting because many pundits are predicting a Democratic tidal wave in 2008. CQ says the Dems will basically end up where they are today, a majority but not enough to to override presidential vetoes (assuming a Republican wins the White House).

The current makeup of the House is 233 Democrats and 200 Republicans.

CQ predicts the 111th Congress will consist of 231 Democrats and 194 Republicans with 8 seats a toss up.

Keep in mind that the "running against Bush" tactic Democrats used in 2006 won't be as effective in 2008 and Democrats will have to defend their two years of control of the House when they face voters next November. Most polls show Congress under Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, with a lower approval rating than that of President Bush.

Here's the complete list of predictions by Congressional Quarlery.

I can't speak for how races will go in other states, but I know Pennsylvania politics. I have to challenge some of the predictions made by the Congressional Quarterly staff about the 19-member Pennsylvania House delegation.

Here's how Congressional Quarterly sees the Pennsylvania races by Congressional district:

1 - Bob Brady (D), safe
2 - Chaka Fattah (D), safe
3 - Phil English (R), leans Republican
4 - Jason Altmire (D), leans Democratic
5 - John Peterson (R), safe
6 - Jim Gerlach (R), leans Republican
7 - Joe Sestak (D), safe
8 - Patrick Murphy (D), Democrat favored
9 - Bill Shuster (R), safe
10 - Chris Carney (D), leans Democratic
11 - Paul Kanjorski (D), safe
12 - John Murtha (D), safe
13 - Allyson Schwartz (D), safe
14 - Mike Doyle (D), safe
15 - Charlie Dent (R), Republican favored
16 - Joe Pitts (R), safe
17 - Tim Holden (D), safe
18 - Tim Murphy (R), Republican favored
19 - Todd Platts (R), safe

Bob Brady can be beaten. He flopped in the race for Philadelphia mayor this year. He's not as well-liked as everyone thought.

Joe Sestak managed to defeat Curt Weldon thanks to a very negative campaign, but Sestak not endeared himself to Delaware County voters. A Republican can take back the 7th District seat.

Chris Carney in the 10th District is a one-term Congressman. Republicans will win back the seat.

Democrat Paul Kanjorski in the 11th District is not "safe" as CQ predicts. Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, a Republican riding high on his tough stance against illegal immigrants, can beat Kanjorksi.

And John Murtha is living on borrowed time. His is so weighed down with ethical violations that voters will eventually give him the boot.

Pennsylvania not only could determine the next president, but who controls Congress after the 2008 elections. Stay tuned.


Unknown said...

Hi Tony,
What’s your rational for calling America’s Hero Chris Carney “a one-term Congressman”? He is a conservative Serving Navel Officer who is good on God, Guns, and life. Republicans hold a big registration edge but Allen Ertel held the western part of that district when it was in the 17th and he had no problems. Carney is more conservative than Ertel so what is the problem. The best the Republicans have are two no-names who have to spend their own money because they can’t raise any and Washington and Harrisburg have none to give them.
Best wishes,
Barry O'Connell
Former Member Republican State Committe from Lycoming County in the 10th

Anonymous said...

I don't know about Barletta actually winning. He may give Kanjo a good run. I read a very insightful analysis of the 11th. Here is the link: