F&M Poll: Obama leads McCain in PA

A new Franklin and Marshall College Poll of registered Pennsylvania voters shows Barack Obama with a comfortable lead over John McCain in the Keystone State.

Here are key findings in the poll, released Wednesday:

Barack Obama leads John McCain by 8 points (44% to 36%) among registered Pennsylvanians, while 16 percent are undecided and four percent would vote for another candidate. Obama's lead is smaller among likely voters, 46% to 41%.

Obama holds a sizeable lead among women (46% to 32%), younger residents, 18-34, (49% to 33%), non-whites (83% to 2%), college graduates (49% to 33%), and residents of Philadelphia (82% to 7%). McCain has an advantage among Protestants (45% to 37%), fundamentalist Christians (48% to 31%), veterans (46% to 40%), and residents of northeastern (42% to 35%) and northwestern (41% to 30%) Pennsylvania. Obama has an advantage among independents (49% to 27%).

A substantial majority (77%) of registered Pennsylvanians believe the country is off on the wrong track, and more than a third (37%) say they are worse off financially this year than last. Obama is the choice of those who say the country is off on the wrong track (53% to 27%), while McCain has substantial support from those who say the county is moving in the right direction (72% to 11%). Obama leads among those who say their personal finances are worse off compared to last year (49% to 29%), and McCain does well among those whose personal finances are better than last year (54% to 38%).

Only 21 percent of registered Pennsylvanians indicate that President Bush is doing an excellent (3%) or good job (18%), while 78 percent say he is doing only a fair (27%) or poor job (51%). A majority of respondents believe that McCain will mostly continue Bush’s economic (55%) and foreign policies (58%). Nearly half (46%) of respondents say they would be concerned if McCain was elected president, mostly because of his views on policy issues (46%) and the perception that he will carry on the policies of the Bush administration (26%). Slightly more (51%) respondents would be concerned if Obama was elected president, mostly because of his inexperience (39%) and views on policy issues (30%).

Fewer Republicans have a strongly favorable opinion of John McCain (28%) than Democrats who have a strongly favorable opinion of Barack Obama (40%).

Interviews were conducted between August 4-10, 2008. The poll's sample error for registered voters is +/- 3.9 percent and for likely voters is +/- 5.1 percent.

Complete results can be found at http://politics.fandm.edu