Karl Rove: Palin could be the difference in tight race

Karl Rove knows a little something about winning close elections.

Writing in The Wall Street Journal, the architect of George W. Bush's 2000 and 2004 victories says John McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate just might put McCain over the top in what many predict will be another close election.

Rove writes:

Taking on Alaska's good-old-boy politics and beating the incumbent Republican governor might be seen as evidence of the political courage and independence voters are looking for this year. And with women more undecided than men, Mrs. Palin could add more than a point to Mr. McCain's total -- maybe two or three -- which could make the difference in a close contest.

The threat Mrs. Palin poses is why Mr. Obama's campaign has moved rapidly to disparage her record, and why left-wing bloggers have engaged in nonstop character smears against her and her family. Some in the press have aided and abetted this because they feel left out of the preannouncement vetting process. The danger for Democrats is twofold: in highlighting Mrs. Palin's inexperience, they may focus attention on Mr. Obama's; and the harsh attacks levied against Mrs. Palin could completely undermine the Obama promise of a "new politics." In the vice-presidential debate, Democrats must be concerned about Mr. Biden appearing bombastic and condescending -- which is almost a permanent state of mind for the Delaware senator -- while Mrs. Palin comes across as fresh, straight talking, nonpolitical and therefore appealing.

This will be history's shortest general-election campaign. The race is tight, so every new variable carries substantial risk and opportunity. So while the GOP vice-presidential pick is by far the more creative and bold, it is also the more dangerous.

But even if Mrs. Palin does well, as I believe she will, it is still Mr. McCain's performance in the next 61 days that will matter most. Sarah Palin can help advance the McCain reform narrative, but the hard work still rests squarely on the shoulders of John McCain. And that's exactly where the maverick and war hero wants it.

Read the full column at the newspaper's Web site.