My take on Specter-Toomey rematch

Here's my take on a potential Pat Toomey-Arlen Specter Republican Party primary showdown in 2010 for the U.S. Senate seat from Pennsylvania.

Although he has expressed interest in running for Pennsylvania governor, I believe Toomey will end up running against Specter in the GOP primary and should knock Specter off. (With Attorney General Tom Corbett heading a crowded field for the 2010 governor's race in Pennsylvania, Toomey gets lost in the crowd.)

As for winning Specter's Senate seat, I think most GOP leaders believe the seat is lost anyway based on the 2006 Congressional and gubernatorial results and the 2008 Congressional and presidential numbers. Democrats cleaned the GOP's clock in the last two election cycles. They won't come out and say it in public, but GOP leaders can read the writing on the wall.

Pennsylvania is no longer a swing state. It's clearly moved to the blue column. The only way Toomey can win a Senate seat is if the Democrats nominate a far-left candidate, someone like U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz or a less experienced, but ambitious member of Congress such as Rep. Joe Sestak or Rep. Patrick Murphy.

If the Democrats can persuade a moderate Democrat like Auditor General Jack Wagner to run for Specter's Senate seat, then Pennsylvania will have two Democratic senators.

I suspect the Pennsylvania GOP leadership is willing to settle for knocking off Arlen Specter in 2010 to send a signal that the party will not tolerate someone who is so eager to work with Democrats.

If the party is going down again in 2010, it can at least take satisfaction in putting an end to Specter's political career.

If Specter takes the advice of Philadelphia Daily News columnist John Baer and runs as a Democrat, all bets are off.

For what others are saying about a Specter-Toomey race, check out this post.