Expect Specter-Toomey rematch in 2010, but different results this time

Two very astute political observers weigh in on the anticipated rematch between conservative Republican Pat Toomey and U.S. Senator Arlen Specter, a registered Republican who has stabbed the party in the back numerous times.

Toomey, a former Congressman and current head of Club for Growth, came within 2 percentage points of knocking off the favored Specter in the 2004 Republican primary.

Specter has spent the past five years infuriating Republicans with his liberal voting record. Even the party faithful are beginning to abandon Specter, opening the way for Toomey to oust the 79-year-old former Democrat.

Michael Barone, writing in U.S. News & World Report, says Toomey has a shot to knock off Specter, but would have a difficult time winning the Senate seat against a Democrat with Pennsylvania clearly moving to the blue column in recent elections.

Even though Toomey recently announced he is considering running against Specter, Barone doesn't think Toomey will challenge Specter, but is making noise to put the fear of God into Specter, the King of the RINOs (Republican In Name Only.)

"I see Toomey's announcement as something else — a warning that Specter had better not vote for cloture on the card check bill, as he did when it came up in the Senate but had no chance of becoming law because of George W. Bush's veto," Barone writes.

More from Barone:

Specter is a survivor: he was elected Philadelphia County district attorney way back in 1965 and 1969, lost a battle for reelection in 1973, then ran twice more for statewide office and lost until he was elected to the Senate in 1980 and then reelected four times. He doesn't win on charm and charisma, but on brains and hard work. I think Pat Toomey has just struck a strong blow against card check. And he still has the option to run for governor if he wants.

Read his full commentary at the magazine's Web site.

Closer to home, John Baer, who writes about politics for the Philadelphia Daily News, says Specter might as well change his party affiliation back to Democrat since he has been moving further and further away from the Republican Party.

From Baer's column:

I say this because of news this week that former Lehigh Valley congressman and conservative Republican Pat Toomey is "considering" challenging Specter in next year's GOP Senate primary. Yesterday, wealthy GOP Pittsburgh businessman Glen Meakem, who thought about running, said he will not be a candidate, I assume because he knows "considering" in pol-speak usually means "I'm in."

If that's what Toomey means, it's bad news for Specter.

The 79-year-old, 30-year incumbent narrowly survived a 2004 Toomey challenge to win renomination with a scant 1.6 percent of the vote, a margin of just 17,146 votes out of more than 1.04 million cast.

And with Specter one of only three Republican senators supporting President Obama's economic- stimulus efforts - an action many conservatives see as worse than opposing Reagan Supreme Court nominee Robert Bork in 1987 for which Specter was labeled "Benedict Arlen" - the long knives are out.

Read the full column at the newspaper's Web site.

Check out my take on a Specter-Toomey rematch here.